When something fails, we instinctively search for “the reason.” When success arrives, we’re equally quick to identify “the key factor” that made everything work. This mental shorthand feels satisfying because it creates a tidy narrative that our pattern-seeking brains crave.
But reality refuses to cooperate with our desire for simplicity. The single cause fallacy, our tendency to attribute complex outcomes to one dominant factor, blinds us to the intricate web of influences that actually shape results. In business especially, this fallacy leads to dangerous oversimplifications: “Our campaign succeeded because of the creative,” or “We lost the client because our price point was too high.” These explanations feel right precisely because they’re simple, not because they’re accurate.
Think of any significant outcome as a garden rather than a single plant. Success doesn’t grow from one perfect seed but emerges from the interplay between soil quality, watering schedule, sunlight exposure, pest management, and countless environmental factors working in harmony. When we fixate on a single cause, we’re essentially staring at just the flowers while ignoring the complex ecosystem that produced them.
What systems are you currently attributing to a single cause? Can you identify three contributing factors you might be overlooking? The next time you’re tempted to explain an outcome with a single-factor analysis, pause and consider what other elements might be quietly working beneath the surface.
1